Bad Luck?
by Jim Woods

Recently one of my poker buddies wanted a shoulder to cry on, so I obliged. He told me how the poker gods have been against him lately in No-Limit Hold'em. None of his hands hold up, everyone else catches their draws, but he doesn't...blah, blah, BLAH! Seeking some avenue of escape (and needing to change into a fresh shirt), I asked him for some examples. Indeed he had sustained some bad beats, but consider the following stories:

1. "I have pocket jacks...." Faithful devotees of this site may recall my piece earlier this year entitled, "The Trouble with Jacks." Needless to say, I am singularly unimpressed when someone starts telling me a "bad beat" story that begins with "I have pocket jacks." But it gets worse when he continues to tell me that he was playing $1/$2 NL. Most of the players in that game, at least where I play, have no regard for the $100 to $300 stake they bring to the table. You can't protect a hand like jacks pre-flop in that game. You can raise $100 or more and collect the $3 in blinds when everyone folds, or you'll get called or re-raised by someone with a premium hand. The fact that my friend raised $22 pre-flop, and lost to a guy with Kh Qd when the fourth heart fell on the river, elicited no more than a yawn from me. That's not bad luck, it's the nature of that game and the nature of jacks. Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears: Stop wasting money on jacks! They need the right flop to become truly valuable, and they're rarely safe before the river card is exposed.

2. "I have Big Slick on the button...." Yawn number two. Slick and about $3.50 will get you fancy burnt water with flavoring at Starbucks. It is, in my humble opinion, the most overrated and overplayed hand in hold'em. My friend continued. "I raised $20 pre-flop and the big blind defended with Presto. Can you believe that?" Well, yes, especially in a $1/$2 game. There are lots of folks out there who will defend their big blinds, even heads up, with anything that isn't clearly a foot. "The flop was a bunch of rags, and he check-called my $35 continuation bet." Notice the inattention to detail that characterizes someone seeking only your sympathy. I suspect that my friend's opponent had a straight draw to go with his pair. "The turn and river were more garbage, so we checked it down." Another problem with Slick, even when you have position. Do you keep betting after multiple misses, or do you show weakness and check, cutting your losses? Do any of us like having to make that choice?

3. "I was going to leave, but I saw that my favorite dealer was heading to my table, and I thought he'd change my luck." I felt like asking my friend a question: Do you think the place where you played is crooked? If so, why play there? If not (the much more likely response), the dealer has nothing to do with your wins or losses. All he or she does is distribute the cards in an order that has been predetermined by the shuffles, washes, and cuts. I am constantly amazed by poker players' superstitions regarding the dealer, "playing a rush," etc. More importantly, I despise players who blame the dealer(s) for losing sessions. Not only is that illogical, but it is stupid. Dealers and floor persons talk all the time, and they know who the jerks are. If you give a dealer a hard time, what are the chances of getting a favor from the floor the next time you need one?

4. "It was a family pot, and it only cost me $2 to see the flop with K-3 of spades. I flopped a flush, but some chaser with the ace of spades rivered me." People put far too much emphasis on their cards being suited. My buddy was justified in calling pre-flop for $2, but there were only four kinds of flops that he should have wanted-K3 rainbow, two kings, two 3's, or two or more spades including the ace. The odds were about 1 in 20 that he'd have gotten one of those flops. Even a two-king flop could have been big trouble, because he'd have been out-kicked by almost anyone else holding the case king, and several players saw the flop. In my opinion, it is not bad luck to lose after you limp into a multi-way pot with bad starters. You should know at the outset that you are probably going to lose what you put in pre-flop. You have no idea where you stand, vis-à-vis the other contestants, especially the unraised blinds. Most of the time, you will throw your hand away to any significant flop bet, because you flopped nothing or just enough to be dangerous (a single king, for example, in my friend's case). Remember: poker is not an Olympic event, and they don't give silver or bronze medals!

5. "My aces got cracked repeatedly." Who hasn't whined (or heard someone else whine) about this phenomenon? Most of the time, I think the cracking results from slow-playing-not raising enough or re-raising pre-flop, not making opponents pay dearly to draw to straights or flushes, etc. "I waited all that time for AA, then I lost a boatload on it." So it wasn't worth waiting for, unless you bet or raised enough to have at most two opponents seeing the flop with you. Here's an example of the right way to play aces: You made a big re-raise pre-flop, got one caller, and the flop is 7-2-2 or 5-3-3. You can be fairly sure you have the better hand and go ahead and value bet. Sure, once in a great while your opponent will have flopped a boat or quads, but that just gives you a good story to tell after the pain subsides.

You may be wondering what I think IS bad luck. Basically, when you have bet your hand correctly and have your opponents dominated, but one or more catch a miracle card, that's bad luck. One time I had T-T, the flop was T-2-2, and both of my opponents had Slick. I was a 301-to-1 favorite! All I had to avoid were running 2's, K's, or A's. But the cards can be cruel. The turn was an ace, and so was the river. Now THAT was bad luck! My only consolations were (a) it was a limit game and (b) the lucky bastards had to split the pot!

---
Related Content:

The Trouble with Jacks
by Jim Woods

Questions or comments on this article? Click here to send a letter to the editors.

About the Author:
Jim Woods is a middle-aged attorney (but please don't hold that against him) that loves fishing and poker. He has an undergraduate degree... that comes in handy in poker, less so in poker. His one favorite poker fantasy? Using Cling Eastwood's famous line on Phil Hellmuth while having him dominated in a hand: "I know what you're thinking... But what you gotta as yourself is: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well... do ya, punk?