Reverse Implied Odds
by Bryan Devonshire

I recently found myself in a situation in an online tournament where I made a call out of position with J-T against another big stack, thinking to myself: "Self, if you hit this hand then you can bust this big stack and have a huge chip lead." I made several mistakes in this line of thinking that I will outline for you in this article.

Okay, so here's the situation. It's a No-Limit Hold'Em daily major tournament online. I have 13.5k at the start of the hand, and the blinds are 100-200 with an ante of 10. I have the biggest stack on the table and the average is somewhere in the neighborhood of 5k. We are in the middle stages of the tournament. I open in middle position to 500 flat with J-T. A very good player (SCTrojans) re-raises to 1,550, leaving himself 7,500 behind. There's 2,400 in the pot, it's 1k to me, I'm out of position, and I have 7,500 in implied odds. So, if I hit (and he puts all the money in), I'm getting 10-1 on my money to call and see the flop.

Makes sense right? Well, here's what happened. I called, we saw a flop, and it came T-9-7, rainbow with one club.

Now what? I can bet, hoping that he has A-K or something similar and lays it down. I can check and then decide, either folding, calling, or raising.

I check, he bets 3,500 into a similarly-sized pot, and I hate life. I can't check-raise since he's pretty much committed. I can't fold since that's pretty weak. And, I hate calling, since he's almost guaranteed to ship it on the turn.

I call, wishing I had just folded pre-flop, praying to Jesus, Allah, Buddah, Mary, and the poker goddess that he has A-K.

The turn is a Q. AYA. I check, he shoves. I'm getting 3-1, and decide to call since I like having chips, busting this excellent player would be nice, and I suck at poker and put myself in this place in the first place.

So here's how I messed up in my thinking. I completely forgot and didn't think about the situations where I'll flop top-pair/draw-type hands. Just like the case in hand, I was out of position against a very good player playing with deep stacks that suddenly got shorter because of all the chips that went into the pot pre-flop. Also, I hate folding, especially against players that are aggressive and willing to three-bet with speculative hands. If I fold everything but my monsters to their re-raises, then they are simply going to torture me during the entire tournament, and I am going to be forced to rely on my cards. Now, since I rarely get cards (and neither should you, unless you run really well), I am forced to accumulate chips in spots that aren't so textbook.

Here's an idea: So what! Fold the dang hand! I know J-T suited is a pretty hand, and I know it's won us all some huge pots, but in a tournament situation where you can't play anymore after losing all your chips, throw it away to the re-raise!

My thinking in that spot is accurate, in that I don't want to be folding everything to an opponent's re-raise, but the hands that I am calling with have to be hands that are very easy to play post-flop. For example, I am never going to fold a pair here to a re-raise, as the odds are considerable enough for me to have equity to flop a set. If I flop a set, I'm probably busting my opponent, and if not I'm throwing the hand away. But, what if I call with 7-7 and it comes 4-4-2? Unless you have a reason to believe that your hand is good, pitch it into the muck. Again, this is not a cash game, and this is not limit. If you're wrong, you're busto.

Some other hands that you can play out of position against a big stack re-raise are small, suited connectors. These hands are also very easy to get away from if you flop a piece and will also pay off huge when you hit the flop hard, as they are disguised. For example, if you have 7-8 in the same spot and flop 7-7-T, your opponent with those same aces is going to put all his money into the pot since eight high isn't exactly in a standard pre-flop range.

So, it sounds pretty simple, but I see people make this mistake all the time. They raise pre-flop with a standard opening hand, get re-raised, and simply will not let the hand go pre-flop. Then they flop top pair or some other weird hand and lose all their chips to their opponent, someone who has a bigger pair or bigger kicker. Don't call re-raises out of position unless you can easily get away from the hand after the flop if you do not hit hard! Just throw those cards into the muck and hope your opponent re-raises you the next time you have aces!

Peace and good luck,

Devo

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About the Author:
Bryan Devonshire is a rising star on the professional circuit. Since he took second place in the first event of the 2006 World Series of Poker, he has cashed in four major tournaments, including a first place finish at the Commerce Casino. Bryan is also a featured blogger on PokerPages.com.